Insights · Selected themes
Signal, not volume.
The themes, situations and country views that show how I think, organised the way the coverage board is: by the kind of problem, not the map. Nothing here is a research product, and nothing carries market data.
Sovereign workouts and special situations
Distress, default, restructuring, and the trade after the deal.
2024 – 2026
SRILAN
Sri Lanka after the exchange. Reading the new instruments, including the macro-linked bonds, reform credibility, and what the post-deal path means for holders.
2024 – 2025
MVMOFB
Maldives financing stress. Reserve adequacy, tourism seasonality, the sukuk question, and what a reprofiling would look like if it came to that.
2025
SENEGL
Senegal and the WAEMU buffer. Hidden debt, the IMF relationship, regional liquidity as a backstop, and why the usual restructuring template may not apply.
2024 – 2025
ETHOPI ZAMBIN
The politics of recovery value. Creditor committees, official-sector engagement, state-contingent instruments, and what actually decides what bondholders get back.
2022 – 2024
PKSTAN
Pakistan and IMF programme credibility. The read-across from Sri Lanka, and why the two recoveries diverged.
Sovereign and quasi-sovereign relative value
Curves against each other, state-owned issuers against the sovereign, and debut deals.
2025 – 2026
MONGOL
Mongolia: sovereign versus banks. When the sovereign is too tight, the systemically important banks are the cleaner expression of the same macro view.
2026
INDON
Indonesia quasi-sovereign supply. Debut issuers, new-issue concession, and where the pickup over the sovereign is worth taking.
Ongoing
TURKEY ROMANI SOAF
CEEMEA sovereign curves. Scorecards across the region's hard-currency curves, with the political risk priced in rather than footnoted.
Investment grade and macro credit
The macro themes that set the tone for the whole complex.
Annual
OUTLOOK
Emerging market credit outlook. Global macro, EM technicals and flows, country pages, and preferences for the year ahead.
2025 – 2026
TARIFFS
Tariff transmission into EM credit. Trade exposure, FX adjustment capacity, and the widening gap between resilient and vulnerable sovereigns inside one tariff regime.
2025 – 2026
MIDEAST
Middle East conflict channels. Oil shock scenarios, reserve adequacy, Gulf issuers, and the sovereign differentiation that a broad-brush risk-off misses.
2024 – 2026
CHINA
China policy and the regional read-through. Stimulus, the commodity channel, growth spillovers and capital flows for the rest of emerging Asia.
2025
TWD
Taiwan dollar strength and insurer flows. Hedging costs, regulatory nudges, and the structural flow implications for Asian dollar credit.
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