Selected themes, market views, and public-facing commentary.
This page is less about volume and more about signal: the themes, restructuring situations, country views, and media references that show how I think.
The themes that keep feeding into sovereign credit.
Iran conflict and the transmission channels into Asia
An assessment of the risk-off channels from Iran-Israel escalation and Strait of Hormuz disruption risk. The analysis covers oil price shock scenarios, Asian reserve adequacy, and the sovereign credit differentiation that matters inside an episode that is usually painted with a very broad brush.
The macro impact of US tariff pressure on Asia
A framework for thinking about US tariff escalation across Asian sovereign credits. The note breaks down trade exposure, FX adjustment capacity, and the widening gap between North Asian resilience and broader ASEAN or South Asian vulnerability inside a single tariff regime.
Taiwan dollar strength and insurer flow dynamics
An analysis of how persistent TWD strength interacts with Taiwan life insurer offshore allocations. The piece covers the currency hedge cost dynamics, regulatory nudges, and the structural flow implications for Asian dollar credit markets over the medium term.
China stimulus and the read-through for emerging Asia
A review of the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures out of China and what they mean for the rest of emerging Asia. The analysis separates the commodity demand channel, the regional growth spillover, and the capital flow implications that matter most for sovereign credit investors.
Sri Lanka post-restructuring
An assessment of Sri Lanka's credit trajectory following the completion of its sovereign bond restructuring. The focus is on the post-restructuring yield dynamics, reform credibility, IMF program traction, and what the next leg of the story looks like for holders of the new instruments.
Where restructuring mechanics become the story.
Senegal, WAEMU, and the sovereign read-through.
An analysis of Senegal's fiscal and political trajectory under the new administration, and what the spillover channels look like for the wider WAEMU region. The piece covers Eurobond pricing dynamics, the policy framework questions, and how Senegal fits into the broader frontier sovereign re-rating discussion.
Ethiopia, Zambia, and the politics of recovery value.
A comparative look at the Ethiopia and Zambia restructuring processes, focusing on what drives recovery value outcomes. The note examines creditor committee dynamics, the role of official sector engagement, state-contingent instrument design, and the political economy constraints that ultimately shape the recovery for bondholders.
Quoted in the outlets people already trust.
Selected public references that show the work reaching investors, journalists, and wider market conversations.
Sri Lanka recovery values and bondholder expectations
Quoted on Sri Lanka restructuring dynamics, recovery value expectations, and what bondholders were positioning for during a critical phase of the restructuring process.
Frontier market opportunities in difficult credit conditions
Quoted on the dynamics of frontier market credit, the conditions driving differentiation within the asset class, and where pockets of value were emerging for selective investors.
Bankers, officials, and the Sri Lankan debt crisis
Quoted on the engagement between Sri Lankan officials and the financial community during the early stages of the sovereign debt crisis, providing context on market expectations and restructuring timelines.
Pakistan and the market implications of an IMF deal
Quoted on Pakistan's engagement with the IMF, the market implications of a potential programme, and the differentiated recovery dynamics across Pakistan and Sri Lanka within the Asian frontier credit space.